Deciphering California’s Drought: Trees Over Technology
By Leah Jun
Time and time again, climate change and the drought have been indicated through measuring factors like precipitation rates and temperature fluctuation. With access to satellites and top grade software, scientists can now run simulations with inputted data in an attempt to replicate something that already took place or to predict what is yet to come. These simulations can recreate the evolution of an oak tree or develop a time lapse of the population decline of that tree species. However, there will always be some amount of assumption and conjecture in making each simulation, so the resulting simulation may not always be entirely accurate. In science, even one wrong detail could skew an entire theory or idea, rendering simulations less and less reliable. So why do we continue to go to technology as the first resource when we could retrieve information directly from the primary source: the trees.
Daniel Griffin had the same idea. A dendrochronologist with focuses on evidence of climate change within the tree rings he studies, he recently conducted some research on California’s blue oak trees. Just by looking at the tree rings of a blue oak, he was able to infer that the current drought of California is the worst in the state’s history since around the year 815, about 1200 years ago. Griffin has the potential to collect environmental history records going back hundreds of years, including factors like precipitation and air quality, just by observing ring width, the trends in width, and analyzing particles embedded in each subsequent layer. No computer software could tell you that. With records only extending back about 75 years and the limited scope of the simulations, trees are the perfect resources for questions we have about the drought. Using tree ring data as set precedents, the data has helped scientists understand the causes and condition of California’s current drought, and maybe even predictions moving forward.
Furthermore, the data’s linearity delivers a simple, but convincing source of evidence for critics and non-believers. Compared to simulations, Griffin states that, “The tree ring data provides a little more credibility and a little more information about the range of variability we might see going forward…” Griffin found that not only is the tree ring data reliable and easily decipherable, it’s a preferred choice of evidence with the resource and water managers he’s spoken to, “because it’s so tangible.” Often, simulations and information released to the public are nearly unintelligible so tree ring data is a convenient unit of drought calculations and measurements.
With all the information that tree rings have provided, there’s much more knowledge we have yet to attain, and further studies of tree rings are the answer. In the words of Griffin, “We still have so much to learn from these natural archives.”
To learn more about Daniel Griffin's blue oak study visit http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014GL062433/full
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